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A November 3, 2026, episode of Thorsten Meyer’s “Work After Work” series examines how farming’s share of employment fell over two centuries, while food production rose. The episode uses that history to discuss possible future automation, but its suggestion that another sector could reach 90% automation is a thesis, not an established forecast.
Thorsten Meyer published the second episode of his “Work After Work” series on November 3, 2026, tracing how farming went from employing most workers in some countries to a small share of the workforce. The episode uses agriculture’s long history of labor-saving change to consider how automation might affect other kinds of work, while acknowledging that its forecast of a sector becoming as much as 90% automated is Meyer’s thesis, not a confirmed outcome.
The episode’s central comparison is the United States around 1800, when an estimated 73.7% of the labor force worked in agriculture. The figure comes from economic historian Stanley Lebergott’s estimates, later published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The series covers a labor force of 1.9 million people aged 10 and older, including about 530,000 enslaved people. Because the figures before 1840 are estimates rather than census counts, the episode describes the share as about three in four.
The change took generations and involved successive developments in tools, chemistry and plant breeding. Deere & Company dates its account of John Deere’s steel plough to 1837. The Nobel Foundation says breeders working with Norman Borlaug brought dwarf wheat to India and Pakistan in the mid-1960s. India’s official figures cited in the episode put wheat production at 12.3 million tonnes in 1964–65 and 26.4 million tonnes in 1971–72. A later figure for 2024–25 is a third advance estimate, not a final total.
The episode also stresses that the employment share fell before the number of farm workers did. In the United States, the number of farm workers continued to rise until about 1910, reaching an estimated 11.8 million. For Germany, the episode cites a decline in agriculture’s share from 43% to 25% between 1882 and 1939, while the number of farm workers remained between 8 million and 10 million. These figures describe different measures: a falling share of workers does not by itself mean the headcount immediately fell.
Work After Work · Episode 02 · November 3, 2026
When AI Became As Common As The Tools We Use Every Day
Agriculture’s long shift shows how tools and innovation can reshape work over generations. It offers a useful historical lens on automation—with no guarantee that another sector will follow the same path.
01 / A change in the work
Fewer workers could produce far more food
Agriculture’s employment share fell over generations as tools, chemistry, crop breeding and infrastructure changed how food was produced. The workforce share and the number of workers did not move in lockstep: the U.S. farm-worker headcount continued rising until about 1910 even as agriculture became a smaller share of employment.
~3 in 4
workers in farming
Stanley Lebergott’s estimate for the U.S. labor force around 1800. The figure includes a labor force of 1.9 million people aged 10 and older, including about 530,000 enslaved people. Pre-1840 figures are estimates, not census counts.
4.2×
world cereal harvest
The episode compares growth in the global cereal harvest since 1961 with population growth of 2.7× over the same period. These comparisons describe change over time; they do not isolate the impact of a single technology.
Nearly 3×
farm output by 2023
U.S. farm output was nearly three times its 1948 level, according to the episode, with only a small rise in total inputs. Agriculture’s workforce share can shrink while production grows.
02 / The measures matter
A shrinking share does not mean an immediate shrinking headcount
Employment share compares farm workers with the whole workforce. Headcount counts farm workers directly. One can fall while the other keeps growing if employment elsewhere grows faster.
Germany · share of workers in agriculture
The number of farm workers remained between 8 million and 10 million during this period. The 1882 occupational census undercounted women working on family farms.
Share and headcount tell different stories
The U.S. number of farm workers continued to rise until about 1910, reaching an estimated 11.8 million. Germany’s employment share fell substantially while its farm-worker headcount stayed within a broad range. A falling share alone does not show when—or whether—the number of workers began to decline.
03 / A sequence of advances
Change came through tools, inputs and improved crops
The episode describes agricultural productivity as the result of successive developments, each dependent on its own conditions and infrastructure—not machinery alone.
John Deere dates his steel plough account to 1837.
Mechanical equipment changed the work needed in the fields.
Synthetic ammonia fertilizer supported higher yields.
Dwarf wheat reached India and Pakistan in the mid-1960s; India’s wheat production rose from 12.3M tonnes in 1964–65 to 26.4M in 1971–72.
04 / Different places, different histories
A global story, with figures that are not directly comparable
Historical estimates from different countries and years show that high agricultural employment was widespread. Definitions and source methods vary, so these are reference points—not a single comparative survey.
~85%
primary sector
A reconstruction of gainfully occupied people working in farming, forestry and fishing.
83.5%
primary sector
The employment series began with this share of employed people in the primary sector.
69.7%
in agriculture
The census counted cultivators and agricultural laborers as a share of workers.
05 / What the history can—and cannot—say
The 90% automation claim remains unsettled
Agriculture’s history makes large, long-term shifts in work easier to imagine. It does not establish the speed or scale of automation in offices, factories or another sector.
“Up to 90%” is a possibility raised by the episode.
The supplied material does not define which sector would reach that level, how automation would be measured, or what model supports the estimate. The timeframe—within a decade or over several decades—is broad. Treat it as an argument for discussion, not a confirmed outcome.
Historical estimates
Early U.S. figures are estimates rather than census counts; the 1882 German census undercounted women on family farms.
Many contributing factors
Machinery, fertilizer, irrigation, crop varieties and other inputs all shaped agricultural output.
Global workforce
The 2025 ILO estimate cited is 928 million agricultural workers—about one in four workers worldwide.
06 / The series continues
From field to factory—and eventually office
The second episode is part of “Work After Work,” a seven-minute audio and video series introduced with a three-part view of the economy: field, factory and office. The episode identifies its narration as an AI voice clone of Meyer.
Next focus: the factory sector
The series points to mechanical reapers, threshers and tractors as topics for its third installment. No publication date or conclusions are provided in the available source material.
What Farming’s Long Shift Shows
Agriculture offers a historical example of large-scale change in the work people do. Mechanized equipment and other advances allowed fewer workers to produce more food. The episode cites a 4.2-fold rise in the world cereal harvest from 1961, compared with 2.7-fold population growth over the same period. It also says U.S. farm output in 2023 was nearly three times its 1948 level, with only a small rise in total inputs. Those comparisons challenge the idea that a smaller farm workforce must mean less food.
For readers watching current debates about automation, the example gives both a reason to take change seriously and a reason to avoid treating it as immediate. The episode’s account spans roughly two centuries in the United States. It shows that a technology-driven shift can reshape employment over a long period, rather than displacing an entire workforce at once. The historical case does not, on its own, predict the speed or scale of automation in offices, factories or other sectors.
The remaining agricultural workforce is also substantial globally. The International Labour Organization’s 2025 estimate, as reported in the source material, puts the number at 928 million people, or about one in four workers worldwide. The episode gives agriculture’s employment share as 43% in India, about 1.5% in the United States and about 1% in Germany. These are country-specific figures and should not be read as a single worldwide rate.
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A Change Built Over Generations
The episode is the second installment in “Work After Work,” an audio and video series about how economies and employment change. Its first episode introduced a three-part view of the economy: field, factory and office. This installment focuses on the oldest of those sectors, agriculture. The series says it is a seven-minute episode and identifies its narration as an AI voice clone of Meyer.
Historical estimates in the episode show that high agricultural employment was not unique to the United States. Japanese economic historians’ reconstruction puts the share of gainfully occupied people in the primary sector—farming, forestry and fishing—at about 85% in 1872. Germany’s first official occupational census, from 1882, counted 43.4% of workers in agriculture and forestry, though the source notes that women working on family farms were undercounted. China’s employment series began in 1952 with 83.5% of employed people in the primary sector; India’s 1951 census counted cultivators and agricultural laborers as 69.7% of workers. The figures come from different sources and years, so they are historical reference points, not a directly comparable survey.
The account links these changes to a sequence rather than a single invention. It describes steel ploughs and later mechanical equipment, the development of synthetic ammonia fertilizer, and higher-yield crop varieties. In the source’s description, short-straw wheat could carry more grain without falling over, particularly when combined with fertilizer and irrigation. Each example depended on its own conditions and infrastructure; the episode does not attribute agricultural output growth to machinery alone.
““Farming shows a whole sector can be emptied of human hands.””
— Thorsten Meyer, in the episode description
The Forecast Remains Unsettled
The episode’s historical statistics describe agriculture, but they do not establish how quickly automation will affect other sectors. The proposed possibility of a sector reaching up to 90% automation is not accompanied in the supplied material by a defined sector, measurement method, forecast model or independent estimate. Its timing—within a decade or over several decades—is also left broad.
Some historical figures carry limitations stated by the source. Early U.S. labor-force estimates are not census counts, and the 1882 German census undercounted women helping on family farms. The global estimate of 928 million agricultural workers is attributed to the ILO for 2025, but the source does not provide further detail on its methodology. The episode’s output comparisons also do not isolate the contribution of any one technology from factors such as fertilizer, irrigation, crop varieties or other inputs.
The Series Turns to Factories
The episode points viewers to a third installment on the factory sector, where it says mechanical reapers, threshers and tractors will feature. No publication date for that installment is provided in the source material. The next episode may extend the series’ comparison of how work shifts between the field, factory and office, but the available description does not state what evidence or conclusions it will present.
For now, the documented development is the publication of an episode built around agriculture’s employment history. Its broader forecast remains an argument for discussion, rather than a measured prediction. The available source does not specify a research method for testing the 90% figure or identify a milestone that would confirm or disprove it.
Key Questions
What happened on November 3, 2026?
Thorsten Meyer published the second episode of “Work After Work,” about agriculture’s changing role in employment and what that history may suggest about automation.
How many U.S. workers farmed around 1800?
The episode cites Stanley Lebergott’s estimate that 73.7% of the U.S. labor force worked in agriculture in 1800. The estimate includes enslaved people and is based on a historical series, not a census count for that year.
Does the episode say another sector will be 90% automated?
No. It presents automation reaching up to 90% within a decade or a few decades as Meyer’s thesis. The supplied source does not identify a specific sector or provide an independent forecast supporting that figure.
How many people still work in agriculture worldwide?
The episode cites an ILO estimate for 2025 of 928 million people, about one in four workers worldwide. That number is an estimate, and the supplied material does not give further methodological detail.
Source: Thorsten Meyer AI
